It is estimated that the US has approximately 16,000 ICU beds across the nation.
It is estimated that we may need 299,000 beds with ventilators, we may only have 5% of the beds we will actually need or 20 times more beds than we actually have.
The US has 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 our needs could be 56.
South Korea 12.3
Impact of COVID-19 on the US Healthcare system
Estimated US Population 328 million 7.59% have been tested (24.91 million)
Estimated 5% of US population will test positive for Covid-19 16.4 million (1.2456 Million)
within the next 3 months, we have tested an est. 24.91 million 1.2456 mill have tested positive
8% will require hospitalization (need this many beds) 1.312 million beds
Estimated by the American Hospital Association there are 800,000. staffed beds available
The USNS Mercy and Comfort added 2,000 staffed beds, not ICU
Of these estimated to be admitted to ICU 960,000. to ICU beds, the US has ICU beds 68,000-85,000 beds.
Summation: Estimated need is 1.312 million hospitalized beds needed for just COVID-19 patients alone. We have tested approximately 24.91 million people or 7.59% of the population tested. With available beds plus Mercy and Comfort 802,000 beds short 510,000 beds
Expected ICU beds needed 960,000 available beds 68,000-85,000 beds. short 875,000 beds
Normal ICU stay 5-7 days, estimated ICU stay for COVID-19 2-3 weeks and they could tie up a ventilator for that length of time also, helping only 1/3 as many patients.
This is why we need to flatten the curve by social spacing and only essential travel.
Expected Death (these are just estimates based on other countries)
if of the 1.312 million positive test patients and if
1% die = 13,120 people
2% die = 26,240 people (world wide average) we are at 75054 (of 5.72% of estimates) 6.03% of those tested positive have died. We need more testing to bring down the % dying down
We need 60% and prefer 70-90% of the population to be tested. Testing is so important.
3% die = 39,360 people
if 1 in 10 of the 960,000 or 10% of ICU patients die = 96,000 people
Assuming there are 328 million people in the US, that 5% in the next 3 months will test positive for the virus, knowing that we have 1245622 positive cases, this assumes we have tested 24.91 million tests if 5% are positive, which is 7.59% of population has currently been tested once. Currently the US death rate is 75054 since 3/1/2020 or 28.06% of the world’s deaths
To put this in perspective, In comparison to the flu in the US
CDC Estimates. From 2010 to 2016, the flu-related death rate was between 12,000 and 56,000, with the highest season being 2012 to 2013 and the lowest being 2011 to 2012. Most deaths are caused by complications of the flu, including pneumonia or a secondary bacterial infection of the heart or brain. or 2,000 to 9,333 per year. 2020 so far this year in the US 19 million have come down with the flu, 180,000 have been hospitalized and 10,000 (0.052%) have died.
Why is this so concerning, compared to SARS which claimed 800 lives
The characteristics nature of Covid-19 is so alarming, it has jumped species and spread among humans so quickly (become extremely virulent)
This is a Pandemic (3/16/20) as determined by the WHO, defined as when 2/3’s of the countries have active/reported cases
Best practice protection is good personal Hygiene do not touch eyes, nose, mouth, wash hands frequently for at least 20-30 seconds, before you touch your face, and observe personal spacing of 6-18 feet. Remove your shoes in your house, frequently clean surface areas, let the cleaner sit 15-20 sec before wiping off. We are recommending to wear any kind of mask.
Drug treatment is being researched, but as yet not been verified, only suggested.
Best to isolate those sick and isolate those most susceptible (old and preconditioned with risk factors)
Risk factors: Cardiovascular disease (56.6%), Obesity (41.7%), Diabetes (33.8%), age >60, respiratory problems, especially smokers or those who vape, High Blood Pressure
If you have been exposed self isolate for 2-4 weeks
One episode in China, a man tested negative for 27 days before showing symptoms. So Isolation may want to be considered up to 4 weeks not just 2 weeks.
Italy 1 in 10 positive cases admitted to ICU due to Hypoxic failure requiring mechanical ventilation. In NY it was 1 in 7 that required hospitalization, of the 5700 hospitalized 2634 were discharged (79% (2081)) or died (21%(553)), 9 in 10 put on a ventilator died.
Public policy development and education is important.
How Long does Covid-19 stay on objects:
Air up to 3 hours
Copper 4 hours
Cardboard (Amazon Box) 24 hrs
Plastic surfaces/Stainless Steel 72 hours
Mucosal surfaces unknown
Project outward to
Exhalation can spray spittle (droplets) 1.5 m (4.9 ft)
Coughing 2 m (6.6 ft)
Sneeze 6 m (19.7 ft)
Alaska has 374 cases so far, 83 in Fairbanks or a little over 1 of every 5 of Alaskans
the first was transient foreign airline crew member.
Development of immune response
Early testing tests to see if you currently have the virus
Later testing tells us if you have been exposed and survived. But does not tells us if you have immunities to the virus. We will need to have both tests done in order to open the community.
Viral Antigen and Viral RNA tells us you have the disease and can spread the disease and can or are currently sick.
IgM and IgG (antibodies) tells us you have experienced the virus or had the vaccine, and got over it. You may be resistant if your antibody levels are high enough. We have tested currently 2.1% of the Alaskan population and over little over 6.1%of the national population. To be safe we need at least 25% to see if we are making progress, 60% to barely qualify to be safe, and 70-90% to be assured we will not see a second wave of sickness.
Three types of clinical laboratory COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 tests are being developed:
Host antibody tests (serology)
They detect the virus in different ways.
Mask & Mask Usage: N95 filter out 95% of the particles in the air 3 microns in size or larger.
Mold sizes are about 10-12 microns in size. Bacteria are larger, so is dust
Gas molecules are smaller
Viruses are 1 micron in size, 0.3 micron in size, 0.1 microns in size, so they will pass right through. But the mask may provide up to 5 times the protection over wearing no mask at all. It still does not protect the wearer from contracting the infection. But maybe something is better than nothing.
Remember there is a clean side ( the side towards you) and a dirty side, the side to the contaminated air is dirty. If you are COVID positive then this is reversed. When handling the mask, do not touch the dirty side and then touch your face, Wash properly your hands first after touching the dirty side before touching your face. If you are infected the dirty side is the inside surface of the mask.
Wash your homemade mask in hot water wash >133F (for at least 10 minutes) and rinse to sanitize with high heat >133F Plus and a weak bleach or peroxide (not Both) the mask. Daily if possible. If you are a frontline health care provider with a homemade fabric mask 2 hours. Do not touch the dirty side.
Alcohol solutions should be 60-80% alcohol 70% is optimal.
Hydrogen peroxide diluted to 2% or 4 teaspoonful per quart of water (20ml per 946ml)
Bleach the same ratio
Vinegar is not a disinfectant
Do not mix any of these together, toxic fumes can result.
Disinfectants, in order to be effective, should remain on the applied surface, to be cleaned moist (wet) for 30 seconds to 4 minutes depending on material. Caution may dissolve glue or adhesives or bleach and discolor items, check with manufacturers. Do not let it get inside electronic devices. UV (10 minutes), UV light only kills where it can see.
Taking hot baths, using colloidal silver, eating garlic soup, gargling with bleach are not proven to be effective. We have already seen using chloroquine taking the wrong form in the wrong dose can be fatal, one death and one critically injured. (see Arizona couple after listening to the president)
We have heard of all kinds of cures. To date there is no curative or preventative treatments, only supportive therapy.
At this point there is no proof that Quinine, zinc, Hydroxychloroquine, Chloroquine, or Vitamin C works. As they say wives-tale at best, irresponsible reporting most likely. We have seen no information that they work, ineffective dosing issues, over-dosing issues, permanently killing the senses of smell or taste, inappropriate usage, cardiac arrhythmias, and death from the usage of these agents have been reported.
The virus may die out with heat of summer, or cold weather, this is a myth
There are a couple of studies that show the virus can withstand 98F
We know the body tries to use 104F to potential our immune system, to kill viruses.
Taking NSAID, Aspirin, Ach-Inhibitors, Arb’s and you get the COVID-19 infection are not contraindicated and no clinical evidence that says you should stop any of these classes of medications. It would be misguided and ill advised if you did so
In other words, keep taking your medications unless told to do otherwise.
Unless you are really sick, and the doctor pulls you off of them, keep taking your medication.